__________ finds the best fit line through a set of data points to minimize the sum of the squared error terms.

Linear regression

______________ forecasts adapt quickly to a true change in mean demand whereas ______________ forecasts are better able to ignore temporary fluctuations in the demand pattern.

Responsive; stable

If the ___________ falls outside 4, we should review the forecast for potential bias.

Tracking signal

_______________ forecasts are more subjective and better suited for long-range decisions whereas _____________ forecasts are more objective and better suited for short-range decisions.

Qualitative; quantitative

Which of the following statements regarding forecasts is NOT true?

Disaggregate forecasts are more accurate than aggregate.

Trend

Persistent upward or downward pattern

Seasonality

Regular predictable up and down fluctuations.

Cyclicality

Economic, business or political cycles of unknown length

Random Variation

Erratic, unsystematic residual fluctuation

Forecast for Next Period = Forecast for Current Period + *(Error from Current period)

Exponential Smoothing

Average n most recent periods weighted equally.

Simple moving average

Average n most recent periods with potentially different weights for each period.

weighted moving average

Forecast for Period t = Intercept + Slope*t

Trend forecast with linear regression

At

Actual demand observed at time t

F(t+1)

Forecast for period t+1 made after observing the demand for period t

Lt

Estimate of level component at time t

Tt

Estimate of trend at time t

St

Estimate of seasonality factor at time t

During April 2020, approximately what percentage of U.S. stores ran out of toilet paper?

73%

Which of the following is NOT a situation when managers should use advanced predictive analytics compared to traditional forecasting methods?

For situations where the risk and associated loss of a supply-demand mismatch is low.

Which of the following statements is FALSE regarding advanced predictive analytics in the supply chain?

Traditional methods are better than advanced predictive analytics for short-term planning and products with volatile demand.